Hydrological Extremes in the Narmada Basin
The Research group of Dr. Somil Swarnkar, Department of Earth & Environmental Sciences, developed an integrated framework to assess evolving hydrological extremes in the Narmada Basin under changing climate conditions. The study combines high-resolution IMD rainfall observations with bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections across multiple SSP scenarios to evaluate shifts in rain spell behavior. Key rain spell characteristics i.e., maximum volume (Vmax), intensity (Rmax), and duration (Dmax), are extracted and analyzed using a robust methodological framework. Bias correction is performed using CDF matching to ensure consistency between observed and simulated datasets, followed by stationarity assessment using the Wald–Wolfowitz test. Both stationary and nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models are applied to estimate return levels for extreme events. The framework reveals a pronounced increase in both frequent and rare hydrological extremes, with strong spatial variability across the basin. The findings highlight increasing flood risks due to longer and more voluminous rain spells in downstream regions, and intensified short-duration rainfall in upstream areas. This work provides critical insights for climate-resilient water resource planning and adaptive flood risk management in the Narmada Basin. For more details, kindly visit https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-026-04166-9
