Climate resilience in Indian smart cities: Linking dry-hot extremes and urban vulnerability for sustainability

The research group of Dr. Somil Swarnkar, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, developed an integrated framework combining socio-economic indicators and Compound Dry and Hot Events (CDHEs) to evaluate urban climate resilience across Indian Smart Cities. The study analyzed long-term climate data (1958-2023) to assess the frequency, return period, and cumulative intensity of CDHEs across 100 Smart Cities. The cumulative intensity of CDHEs was integrated with socio-economic information from the Oxford Economics Global Cities Index datasets, including indicators- Economics, Human capital, Quality of life, and Environment, to develop a Cumulative Vulnerability Index (CVI). The framework further employed joint probability analysis to quantify the combined influence of climatic hazards and socio-economic vulnerability, while partial dependence analysis was used to identify the key drivers of urban resilience. The results revealed a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of compound dry-hot extremes over recent decades, with shorter return periods indicating that these events are becoming increasingly frequent. Northern India, Central India, and Western India emerged as the most vulnerable regions, while Ranchi, Prayagraj, Indore, Moradabad, Lucknow, Kanpur, and Kota were identified as the most vulnerable cities due to recurrent and intense dry-hot extremes coupled with relatively low adaptive capacity. The developed framework provides a robust scientific basis for climate risk assessment, resilience planning, sustainable urban development, and evidence-based decision-making under future climate change scenarios. For more details, kindly visit DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102922