Rajasthan Faces Growing Risk from Persistent Dry and Hot Conditions
The research group of Dr. Somil Swarnkar, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, IISER Bhopal, with collaborators, developed an approach to track how rainfall shortages and unusually hot conditions emerge, combine and persist across Rajasthan. Using district-level climate data from 1960 to 2024, the team examined how often these conditions occur and how they change from one month to the next. It asks whether a dry or hot month is likely to become both, and whether those combined conditions will continue. The study found that long rainfall shortages in eastern and south-eastern Rajasthan have given way to shorter, more frequent episodes. Meanwhile, unusually hot conditions have become more frequent and persistent. Dry or hot months can develop into combined dry–hot conditions, which show a strong tendency to continue once established. Published in the Journal of Hydrology, the findings highlight the importance of tracking persistence alongside event frequency. Monitoring heat and rainfall together could support earlier preparedness for sustained pressure on agriculture, water supplies and livelihoods.For more details, kindly visit https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169426008310
